The Driscoll Globe
The 2028 Machine
2028 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
SIMULATION DESK
Updated nightly
The gap: polls versus markets
Polls measure name recognition this far out. Markets price the whole path to the nomination. The distance between them, candidate by candidate, is the story. Click a column to sort.
National Democratic primary polls, last 30 days, against the Kalshi and Polymarket blendloading
| Candidate | Poll average | Market blend | Gap | Run odds | Note |
Poll average is an equal weight mean of national Democratic primary polls from the last 30 days (polls.csv). Market blend is the simple average of the Kalshi and Polymarket nomination prices (markets.json, updated nightly). Gap is poll minus market in points. Run odds are from the Kalshi run market. Notes are hand written in notes.json.
Every poll on file
polls.csv in full · national Democratic primary ballots · empty cells mean the poll did not test that candidate