Most coverage asks who is ahead. This asks what would have to happen for someone to get ahead.Baseline assumptions current to mid-June 2026
Today's turning points
WIRE
Current frontrunner
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Last nominee
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Convention floor
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Turning points this run
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One primary plays out as a timeline. The heatmap shows what moves whom.
Turning point rankings
The election's most decisive variables · by average swingbuilt with the heatmap
Build the heatmap below and these rank automatically: the turning points that move the most outcomes, measured in average win-rate swing across the field. This ranks the election itself, not the candidates.
The turning point heatmap
What moves whom · 10,000 paired runs per levernot yet built
Click "Build heatmap" to compute how much each turning point swings each candidate. This shows what changes the odds, not just the odds themselves.
The field
Hover a card for the dossier · set In/Out to override the market
The world
Basic shows the five biggest levers. Advanced reveals everything.
Candidate gates
47%
61%
60%
62%
65%
50%
30%
Environment
40%
50%
35%
40%
50%
THE 2028 MACHINE · A MODEL BUILT FROM ONE OPERATOR'S PRIORS, NOT A FORECAST · THE STRENGTHS ARE ARGUABLE ON PURPOSE; THE VALUE IS WHAT MOVES THE OUTCOME, NOT THE HEADLINE ODDS · BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS CURRENT TO MID-JUNE 2026 AND ALWAYS DRIFTING · THE DRISCOLL GLOBE · POLITICAL SYSTEMS DESK